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The Last Temptation of Christ [Aug. 25th, 2012|01:39 am]
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Jesus was led by the Spirit into the desert, where he was tempted by the Devil. After various lesser trials and temptations, the Devil led Jesus to the top of an exceedingly high mountain and showed him all the kingdoms of the world. And they stood there together, gazing upon the vista below.

"Behold," said Satan, mostly to break the awkward silence. "all the kingdoms of the world."

"They're very nice," said Jesus.

Satan's features - still faintly angelic - formed into a pout. "Really?" he asked. "Because I worked so hard corrupting them and turning them against one another, and..."

"No," said Jesus. "Not like that. I was just trying to be polite, really. They're teeming with sin and abomination."

Satan beamed. Some more awkward silence.

"So," said Jesus. "Is this the point at which you offer me lordship over all these kingdoms, if I only I bow down and worship you?"

"Nah," said Satan. "Like I said, they're kind of crappy. I'm here to tempt you, not insult you. I was planning something more interesting."

He waved his hand over the panorama, and it expanded in a hard-to-describe way. The three-dimensional view became four-dimensional; the vista became a manifold.

"Behold," said Satan again, "all the kingdoms of the world. Now and forever. Before you, the entire scope of history."

Jesus hesitated, not really sure what the polite response would be.

"You could at least smile!" said Satan. "Look! These people love you!"

Sure enough, it was true. Many of the kingdoms before them were Christian, building great cathedrals and writing beautiful works of theology in Jesus' name. Among the remainder, many were Muslim, revering him as one of the greatest of prophets.

"It's pretty encouraging," Jesus agreed. "So what's the catch?"

"Always the catch with you people," said Satan. "Well, if you insist. Take a look particularly at the psychiatric hospitals."

Jesus gazed through the manifold, where ten thousand psychiatric hospitals presented themselves simultaneously to his elevated senses.

"As you notice," said Satan "your popularity has had some fascinating side effects. In particular, a pretty good proportion of psychotics, sometime in their illness, think that they're you. I don't think either of us wants to sit here counting them all, but could we agree on a hundred thousand as a conservative estimate?"

"A hundred thousand psychotics who believe themselves to be Jesus Christ, across the entire scope of world history," agreed Jesus. "Sounds reasonable."

"And it's a pretty strong delusion," the Devil went on. "They'd dismiss the contention that they're not you with barely a second thought. Whatever their reasoning processes are, they seem to be bent in on themselves somehow so that they always affirm the conclusion."

"It's very sad," Jesus said. "I hope my Father in Heaven will have mercy upon them."

"That's not what we're here to talk about," said the Devil. "What I'm really interested in is this - given a randomly chosen person who's absolutely certain he's Jesus, what's the probability that he is, in fact, Jesus?"

"Well," Jesus answered "There are a hundred thousand psychotics who believe themselves to be Jesus, and only one real Jesus. So by Bayes' Theorem, we calculate that believing one's self to be Jesus gives one only about a one in one hundred thousand chance that one is actually Jesus."

"Your reasoning is impeccable," said Satan. "So, what is the probability that you're actually Jesus?"

"What?" asked Jesus.

"You are an individual with a certain amount of evidence that you are Jesus. Specifically, you believe yourself to be him. You have various experiences which your reason tells you are consistent with being Jesus, like memories of your mother Mary and so on, but these seem like the sort of thing a damaged intellect could create to support a delusion. You previously determined that a randomly selected person with the belief that he is Jesus has a 1/100,000 chance of being Jesus and a 99,999/100,000 chance of being a psychotic. So, Mr. Person With The Belief That He Is Jesus, do you think those numbers apply to you?"

Jesus thought for a moment. "I'm not a psychotic," he said. "I think I would know if I were psychotic. I'd have all sorts of symptoms. Hallucinations. Confusion."

"You know what the number one hallucination reported by psychotic patients is?" Satan asked.

Jesus thought for a moment. "What?"

"The Devil," said the Devil.

"Oh, that's just unfair," Jesus told him.

"Usually they report he's trying to tempt them to do self-destructive things. You know, like jump off tall buildings. Remind me what we were doing earlier today?"

"You set that up to confuse me," said Jesus.

"And you mentioned confusion. Tell me, where are we right now?"

"An exceedingly high mountain," Jesus answered.

"Which one, exactly? Because the tallest mountain in Israel is a bit under four thousand feet. That's hardly see-all-the-kingdoms-of-the-world height. Are you even sure what country we're in right now? And, uh, last time I checked I'm almost certain the world was a sphere. So what particular mountain do you think we're on that allows us to see all the kingdoms of the world?"

"Uh, well, there are no kingdoms in the Western Hemisphere at this point in history..." suggested Jesus.

"Wrong!" said Satan. "Zapotecs and Mochica! You don't know where you are, you don't know how you got here, and you don't know how you're seeing what you're seeing."

"You took me here," Jesus countered. "I assume you used some sort of devil-magic or something. I didn't watch where we were going."

"Oh please," said Satan. "Outside View! In general, when someone says the only reason they don't know what country they're in is because the Devil is magically clouding their mind, does that make them more or less likely to be mentally ill?"

"Mrhghn," grumbled Jesus.

"So let's recap. You believe yourself to be Jesus. You admit that you have been seeing the Devil, and that he commands you to jump off buildings, a command you resist only with great difficulty. You don't know where you are or how you got there, and your only weak explanation is that malevolent demons magically transported you there and meddled with your mind so you don't remember it. Using the Outside View, what is the probability that you are even remotely sane?"

"Look," said Jesus. "Could you just tell me what the temptation is already?"

Satan waved his hand, and a syringe materialized within it. "5 mg haloperidol, IM" he told him.

Jesus looked at the Devil. He looked at the syringe. He looked at All The Kingdoms Of The World. He looked back at the Devil. His brow furrowed in thought. He looked at the syringe again.

Then his eyes shone as the Holy Spirit flowed through him. His indecision vanished. "Your lies have no power over me, demon," he told his tormentor.

"Please calm down," said Satan, only now he spoke with the voice of a middle-aged woman. "We're just trying to help you, Mr. Anderson. Please just hold still and let me give you your medication."

"Get thee behind me, Satan!" shouted the Christ, and he pushed the Devil off the mountain. Satan screamed as he plummeted, screamed with a woman's voice, until he vanished from sight in the depths below.

[User Picture]From: DRMacIver
2012-08-25 12:40 pm (UTC)
I really liked this, but on further thought I think I can convincingly argue that under certain assumptions maybe!Jesus would consider reasonable his behaviour is rational.

Consider this: How many people's lives are measurably improved by your actions?

Let's assume that if you're a crazy person who thinks he's Jesus the expected answer is going to be no higher than average, even if you're cured. It might be a little higher than average, but probably not much. Let's take a conservative upper bound of the average as 1000 people.

Now let's assume that if you're *actually* Jesus the answer is "Everyone". He comes to redeem all mankind and all that.

Now consider two scenarios:

1) All crazy non-jesuses, including our putative jesus, allow themselves to be cured. He who was once Jesus goes on to live a normal life and affects a normal number of people:

Number of people whose lives are measurably improved: About 1000 * 100000 = about 10 million.

2) All crazy non-jesuses, including our putative jesus, refuse to be cured. Jesus goes on to do the whole redeemer of mankind thing.

Number of people whose lives are measurably improved: Everyone.

Therefore the rational choice, if you genuinely believe yourself to be Jesus, is to at all costs not allow yourself to be convinced otherwise.

(A slightly tongue in cheek argument, but only slightly)
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[User Picture]From: squid314
2012-08-25 03:46 pm (UTC)
I like this argument. Unfortunately, it seems kind of contingent. It depends on the real Jesus having an extremely important mission.

But if we decrease the importance of the mission a little, and increase the number of mental patients a lot, the problem comes back. For example, if Napoleon helped a lot of French people, but many many more people believe themselves to be Napoleon, then even with your argument, depending on the values of "a lot" and "many many" it might still be rational for him to assume he's insane.
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[User Picture]From: mme_n_b
2012-08-25 05:08 pm (UTC)
It also assumes that he'll succeed in his mission if left uncured.
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[User Picture]From: DRMacIver
2012-08-26 12:31 am (UTC)
Agreed. It's not a watertight argument across all cases.

That being said, it's not unreasonable to assume that:

a) Only people whose lives you have affected for the better will suffer delusions of being you
b) there is some reasonably upper bound on the fraction of people who are sufficiently crazy to suffer from this sort of delusion (whether about you or someone else))
c) Said upper bound is small enough that the expectation is that a normal person will not have any impersonators. i.e. P(a randomly chosen person suffers a delusion that he's someone else) * Expected number of people whose lives you improve < 1. (note: Not fully rigorous)

If these assumptions hold, you may reasonably assume that if your work is important enough that you may expect people to suffer delusions of being you then the overall benefit will be greater if you act as if you were sane.
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From: (Anonymous)
2012-09-02 04:22 am (UTC)
Let's not forget that realizing you're not Jesus doesn't cure you. Knowing you're crazy might help you mitigate the effects of being crazy, but considering how much this guy is hallucinating, he's not going to be able to function much.

On the other hand, we only know that there's at most one real Jesus. If everyone who thinks they're Jesus gets "cured", then it's good for everyone so long as none of them actually were the real Jesus.

Also, wouldn't he just conclude he has a tiny probability of being Jesus, and act based on this?
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