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Towards a theory of drama [Oct. 8th, 2012|02:43 pm]
Scott
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Imagine a couple who usually have a personal assistant walk their dog. One day the assistant doesn't show up, and late at night just as they're getting ready for bed they realize the dog hasn't been walked. Also, it's an atomic dog, and if it doesn't get walked it explodes, killing everyone in a several mile radius.
"Honey, the dog hasn't been walked. Would you mind walking her?"

"I'm really sorry dear, I've had a busy day and I'm really tired. Could you take care of it tonight?"

"Oh, I'd love to, but I have to go to work really early tomorrow for a big meeting. Can you walk her?"

"I've been up for twenty hours straight, I've had a terrible day, and I just want to go to sleep. Please walk the dog for me."

"It's already 11 and I have to be at the office at 6 AM tomorrow. You don't have to be up until 8. I think this is your responsibility."

Look around you. Yes, look around. Have you figured out what we're looking for yet? That's right. The answer is interpersonal utility comparison.

Interpersonal utility comparison is impossible in principle, but in practice it works pretty well. This couple is trying to determine who will be more inconvenienced by walking the dog. If it became super-clear that one of them would be worse off, the other would immediately concede defeat and agree to the task.
"Also, the flesh harvester is out tonight, so it would probably kill me and make a robe from my skin if I walked the dog."

"What about me? I don't want to be killed either!"

"Silly, the flesh harvester only attacks men. Women are perfectly safe."

"Oh, right. Grumble. I guess I've got to walk the dog, then."

This seems like a very healthy method of solving interpersonal problems. But it doesn't always work. First, it requires some minimal ability to discuss issues reasonably and without screaming. Second, it requires that both sides be rational and trustworthy. It is a notoriously common failure mode to unconsciously overestimate your own interests relative to other people. In fact, it seems like a form of Fundamental Attribution Error: I don't want to take the dog out because I've had a really busy day; you don't want to take the dog out because you're selfish and lazy.

Third, it can get bogged down in more general problems - the failure mode of missing the trees for the forest:
"But I always do all of the work around here! Just this once, you could walk the dog for me!"

"You always do all the work? I've been supporting this relationship singlehandedly from day one!

"Yeah? Well, remember how your 'investments' cost us half our net worth and if we'd kept that maybe we could have paid the personal assistant to come more often?"

"Oh, it's always about the investments with you. You wouldn't lift a finger to help manage our money, but when I do all the work and something goes wrong, you sure are happy to cast blame. And how was I supposed to know that a portfolio consisting solely of Enron, Solyndra, and the Syrian Tourism Board was a bad idea?"

In other words, in sufficiently unhealthy relationships, all conflicts merge into a single conflict about Who Is The Better Person and Therefore Should Get Zir Way On All Disputes. And this becomes vulnerable to self-serving bias, ie the reason that when couples are surveyed both people claim they do 75% of the housework.

I'd like to be able to make a blanket recommendation like "never escalate disputes to a more general principle". But it does seem fair to me that if I have done all the work in a relationship up to this point - I've made all the money, done all the chores, let my partner have her way in every important decision, and so on, whereas all my partner has ever done is screw up and leave messes that I need to take care of - that my partner owes me and it's her turn to walk the dog tonight. All I can say is that if you always have to escalate to the meta-level, that's probably not a good sign.

An economist would intervene here and suggest an auction as the "rational" solution: both sides bid money to have the other person walk the dog, until eventually a bid is accepted.

This has a couple problems. First, most couples are too boring to even consider the idea. Second, many couples share an account, so that whoever ended up with the chore would end out paid in her own money. But most important, it promotes gaming the system.

Suppose I knew that relationship disputes usually ended in auctions. Even if I was perfectly happy to walk the dog and in fact enjoyed it, I might fake not wanting to do so, so that it would end in an auction, I could artificially inflate the price, and end up getting a lot of money for something I would have done anyway.

alicorn24 has set her computer to "notify" her when she gets an IM, which means in practice that her computer irregularly emits very loud BLEEEEEPs every minute or two that frighten me out of my skin whenever I am near her. I asked her to turn this off, and promised that in exchange, she could point out anything I did that annoyed her and I would stop. She very properly expressed concern that this would incentivize me to develop annoying habits.

This same objection covers the proposal to solve the dog-walking problem with rewards, eg "If you walk the dog, I'll do all the chores for the next week." Once again, it incentivizes your partner to lie and feign unwillingness to help.

That leaves punishment. Although this starts off by seeming promising, there actually aren't a lot of good socially acceptable ways to punish each other. I cringe at just the thought of whichever partner makes more money saying "I'm going to cut off your spending money unless you walk the dog now"; no court on Earth would blame that other partner if he immediately filed for divorce. Threatening to pull a "strike" on doing chores and housework sounds less immediately legally dangerous but also super-childish and would probably also get you in trouble. Overall I'm really skeptical of punishment being a good option here either.

In practice, if simple interpersonal utility can't solve the dog walking problem, because the two parties can't trust one another's utility self-reports or because they just don't care, it usually heads to screaming and yelling:
"I can't believe I married a lazy selfish pig who won't even walk the dog!"

"Which of us was the idiot who wanted a @!$%ing atomic dog in the first place, huh? Oooh, it's got a green glow, that's so adoooorable. And I told you you were too irresponsible to take care of it but noooo, you had to have it now, just like you always have to have everything. Spoiled brat."

"Jerk. I hope the flesh harvester gets you!"

I'm not really sure if there's some kind of useful purpose to this, but it could be a pain auction that serves basically the same purpose as a regular auction.

(I want to note that as far as I know, I am the first person to call relationship drama "basically an auction" and the first person to use the term "pain auction")

Imagine an artist who wants to give her painting to the person who wants it most. Although most artists would auction it off using money, this just gets it to the person with the highest desire*money, which may not be the same (and in fact probably is not the same) as the person with the most desire full stop.

One solution is a pain auction. The artist puts all prospective buyers in a sauna, then gradually turns up the temperature until it is painfully, scaldingly hot. Prospective buyers may leave the sauna at any time, but the last person remaining in the sauna gets the painting. The person who wants the painting the most will stay in the sauna the longest and win (given the false assumption that everyone has the same heat tolerance; in reality, ari_rahikkala will get the painting).

Now this is a terrible idea. It shares two of the worst features of the dollar auction. First, everyone sacrifices, not just the final winner. Second, one may sacrifice much more than the prize is worth. Suppose the painting is worth 100 utils to you, and every minute in the sauna costs 10 utils. If you've been in the sauna ten minutes, and there's only one other person in, you may stay in the sauna an extra minute in the hope that he will drop out and you will win, ending up with -10 utils instead of -100.

But it does have some attraction for solving the dog problem. If being in the environment of screams and insults is painful just like being in the sauna, eventually whichever partner hates walking the dog less will break and go walk the dog.

If interpersonal utility comparison doesn't work, a pain auction might be a next-best (by which I mean vastly worse) alternative that solves the same problem.

Next in sequence: no, it's actually much more complicated than that.
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Comments:
[User Picture]From: lastconformer
2012-10-09 06:16 pm (UTC)
The basic mathematical brick wall is that every preference aggregation scheme will have some very perverse properties according to Arrow's impossibility theorem. But of course people can always haggle about those properties not being so bad after all, which is not a strictly mathematical question. That kind of argument always looks extremely unimpressive to me, but then I'm just some dude on the Internet.
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[User Picture]From: sniffnoy
2012-10-10 06:08 am (UTC)
Well, hold on. Arrow's Theorem is for cases where all you have is a preference ordering. A utility function contains more information than a preference ordering, so you may be able to do better with it. Of course, it's equivalent to a preference ordering on gambles satisfying certain constraints, but my point is that we're talking about the base choices, not gambles. You could talk about applying it directly to the gambles -- but there are infinitely many gambles, and Arrow's Theorem requires finitely many candidates. There's a variant for infinitely many *voters*, but I don't know of any for infinitely many candidates. Also, if you took the gambles as "basis elements" and ignored the structure among them, you'd be disregarding important information. Which admittedly would be irrelevant if Arrow's Theorem applied, as even without that extra information you'd have heavily constrained it, but SFAICT it doesn't.
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[User Picture]From: lastconformer
2012-10-10 07:34 am (UTC)
Arrow's Theorem is for cases where I have a preference ordering. I don't see the requirement that that's all I have. Basically the utility functions on the base choices imply a preference ordering. Likewise your aggregate utility function. So you have the theorem on the implied preference orderings and that's enough to make the result absurd. Additional information doesn't help, because the problem is not locating the solution, the problem is that the preference orderings already rule out the existence of a solution.
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[User Picture]From: sniffnoy
2012-10-10 05:22 pm (UTC)
Arrow's Theorem assumes that the aggregation scheme can *only* depend on the preference orderings, though. If you have something that depends on the additional information -- so that from the perspective of someone blind to the additional information, it would appear non-deterministic -- then the space of possible solutions could maybe get larger?

It does seem plausible to me that this wouldn't actually accomplish anything (if we're putting preference orderings in and getting preference orderings out, why should allowing it to depend on additional information matter?), but I'm not sure it's obvious.

(There is of course also the possibility of just not worrying about Arrow's Theorem because once you have more information you can come up with conditions that make sense in that context and worry about satisfying those instead, like proponents of range voting do.)
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[User Picture]From: lastconformer
2012-10-12 09:16 am (UTC)
I don't think this particular kind of indeterminism helps. The way indeterminism would destroy proofs of Arrow's impossibility theorem is by making "the" result of alternative rankings undefined, so they can't be used in counter-factual arguments.

But now look at e.g. this proof.

You could simply translate it to cardinal language. Replace all preference orders with utility functions. Replace the social welfare function with one that maps many utility functions to one. And then replace every A >_x B with u_x(A)>u_x(B).

Then the "cardinalized" social welfare function is deterministic again, though the proof still doesn't use the additional information. And afaict the proof is still valid.

Your parenthetical statement actually looks like one way to do the haggling I alluded to in my original comment.

Taking the example of the range voters, they replace IIA with a significantly weaker criterion annoyingly also named IIA. Basically the result should only be independent of the scores assigned to irrelevant candidates. This looks reasonable at first, but the perfidy is that the same system forces you to rescale your preferences to a pre-established range. Isolatedly, this wouldn't be so bad either, because otherwise voting would simply turn into a contest to think of the biggest number. But it means the scores of the relevant candidates actually are dependent on your preferences or utility for the irrelevant ones. And then the IIA criterion gets weakened to ignore this very dependence!

As a voting system this just shoves the problem to the individual level where the ballots no longer record it. By that standard FPTP is perfectly fair too. If you want to look at it as an aggregation system for honest utilities it doesn't even do that much, because then the rescaling will be part of the aggregation scheme and an algorithm with two steps one of which is free of paradoxes doesn't look that impressive.

But yeah, at that point we're haggling about when exactly an aggregation scheme should be counted as absurd, which is not a mathematical question.
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