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Waste Heat III: Hot Stuff [Aug. 9th, 2012|09:36 pm]
Scott
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So everyone up to and including brilliant contrarian anthropologist Gregory Cochran has shown up to tell me there were better explanations than waste heat for the latitude-IQ gradient, so in the best tradition of crackpots everywhere let me pull a bait-and-switch. What about the link between heat and crime? (link goes to review article).

This is quite different than the latitude-IQ gradient in that it has nothing to do with geography or race or evolutionary history. It's the observation that people who live in hotter places commit more crimes (regardless of their background), and when place is kept fixed, crime rates are greater during the hotter season, during heat waves, and during the hotter hours of the day. According to the review, "There are 2.6% more murders and assaults in the United States during the summer than other seasons of the year; hot summers produce a bigger increase in violence than cooler summers, and violence rates are higher in hotter years than in cooler years even when various statistical controls are used. Other time-period studies provide consistent results. Aggression - as measured by assault rates, spontaneous riots, spouse batterings, and batters being hit by pitched baseballs - is higher during hotter months, seasons, and years."

The current scientific consensus - I'm not making this up - is that being hot makes people uncomfortable, uncomfortable people get cranky, and cranky people have shorter fuses and so commit more violence. But - and I admit it took me far too long to think of this objection, but as far as I know no one else ever has - you know what else makes people uncomfortable? Cold. Why aren't cold people cranky? Why don't they find that crime increases the further you go from an ideal temperature? Because as far as I know no one has ever found anything like this.

But I say that self-restraint is a metabolically demanding task, that it produces lots of waste heat, and that the amount of self-restraint one can quickly exercise depends on ability to dispose of the associated waste heat. Therefore, exercising self-restraint is harder at higher core temperatures.

After this I really, really will shut up about waste heat. But the heat-crime correlation is one of the more interesting findings I know and deserved a mention.
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Comments:
[User Picture]From: maniakes
2012-08-10 02:47 am (UTC)
It's probably because cockroaches make people cranky and irritable, and cockroaches are more active when it's warm.
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[User Picture]From: squid314
2012-08-10 03:07 am (UTC)
F&@K YOU YOU F*%KING PIECE OF S#@T!...ahem
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[User Picture]From: mindstalk
2012-08-10 02:58 am (UTC)
There's the embodied cognition angle. Physical warmth and emotional warmth are connection, which one could spin for both romantic passion and violent stereotypes.

OTOH India has a low homicide rate. At least in the stats.

Cold and crime: people stay indoors, duh.
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[User Picture]From: squid314
2012-08-10 03:08 am (UTC)
People stay indoors in heat too...or is that just me?
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[User Picture]From: drethelin
2012-08-10 03:31 am (UTC)
There's a lot less you can do to hide from the heat than from the cold, if you're not wealthy. I can sit at home in my air-conditioning, but I know plenty of people who don't have air conditioning or have way less effective air conditioning. On the other hand, blankets and sweaters are fairly cheap.
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[User Picture]From: squid314
2012-08-10 03:37 am (UTC)
So are jackets and gloves. I find myself much more willing to go out in the cold (just layer up) than in the heat (you're doomed).
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[User Picture]From: xuenay
2012-08-10 05:35 am (UTC)
Which would suggest that it's easier to defend against the cold than the heat, thus heat would have a bigger impact on behavior.
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From: (Anonymous)
2012-08-12 03:00 pm (UTC)
Only the rich ones who have air conditioning and don't mind the electricity cost.
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[User Picture]From: marycatelli
2012-08-10 03:23 am (UTC)
Cold makes people commit suicide.

I suppose that could stem from crankiness.
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[User Picture]From: squid314
2012-08-10 03:29 am (UTC)
Can you justify that assertion? IIRC most suicides occur in the spring and summer.
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[User Picture]From: mme_n_b
2012-08-10 03:47 am (UTC)
Darkness, not cold. It just happens to be cold during the dark months.
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[User Picture]From: avanti_90
2012-08-10 03:45 am (UTC)
Once again, my major objection is 'self-restraint is a metabolically demanding task, that it produces lots of waste heat'. Why should a brain exercising self-restraint generate a significantly higher amount of heat? I can think of several things more likely to generate heat that aren't correlated with crime.
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[User Picture]From: squid314
2012-08-10 03:52 am (UTC)
Like I said, it's a crackpot theory. My only "evidence" is that it would explain patterns of yawning, heat-related crime, the effect of cooling caps on insomnia, etc.

(there's also the studies on glucose helping recover from ego depletion, but I don't really trust those and it's only very indirect evidence anyway).
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[User Picture]From: eyelessgame
2012-08-10 05:30 am (UTC)
Most crimes - crimes you hear about, anyway - take place outside of the home. When it's cold you stay indoors and don't break into other peoples' houses. (They're more likely to be home anyway.)

Cold makes you more focused on yourself, because you're actively protecting yourself from the elements, and less likely to see opportunities to inflict criminal behavior on other people.

Teenagers and young adults (demographics most likely to commit crimes) don't "hang out" outdoors when it's cold; if they're outside the home they tend to be in supervised areas like malls.

Homeless people - again, demographically more likely to commit crimes of economic necessity - generally attempt to relocate to places where it is safe to spend the night outdoors.

I think those should be considered as reasons for more crimes in warmer climes.
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[User Picture]From: hentaikid
2012-08-10 10:31 am (UTC)
I certainly observe more confrontations during the summer months, but as others have said, summer drives people outdoors and for longer time so the chances for friction are greatly increased, this alone should bury any more subtle effect that may or may not be there.

Regarding energy availability, my perception is that in summertime one has more, not less energy. People's muscles are flush with blood trying to lose heat, but also available for immediate use by the muscles. The kind of person likely to start whaling into you because you intrude in his personal space is more likely to listen to feedback from his muscles saying "Cold. Sluggish" than anything his frontal lobes might come up with.

Also within the range of 2pm to after 6 pm* I don't think anyone is doing much of anything and judging by the absence of police patrols I bet the statistics would agree.

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[User Picture]From: purejuice
2012-08-11 05:10 pm (UTC)
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[User Picture]From: squid314
2012-08-11 09:39 pm (UTC)
There were a couple of people like that where I trained in Ireland, but it didn't seem anywhere near as bad as this article makes it sound. Of the somewhat fewew doctors I met in the US, one of them seemed like this, so maybe it's more common on this side of the Atlantic.

Overall it seems like a predictable thing to have happen when you throw a bunch of really stressed perfectionist types together with people who are expected to know much more than they could reasonably have learned by that point.
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[User Picture]From: purejuice
2012-08-12 04:50 pm (UTC)
yes, i remember your post on doctor zilla, and i remember thinking about how he was stuck in the immigrant place, that you (on account of your irish ed) and he both were immigrants, and he was going to teach you your place in the food chain. eeks. very systeme d.
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From: dmytrylk
2012-08-13 07:57 pm (UTC)
It seems to me that the more hostile environment should decrease the intra-species competition. In the extreme environment, it should take less of an injury to push a predator beyond the point where it can't recover. Doubly so for social animals that are incapable of survival on their own in the cold.

You could picture the cold as common, deadly enemy, that eats the slightly weakened; not the best time for status fights where both animals may end up too weakened to survive.
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[User Picture]From: gwern branwen
2012-10-06 03:15 am (UTC)
Relevant: http://www.fight-entropy.com/2012/08/high-temperatures-cause-violent-crime.html http://www.fight-entropy.com/2012/08/high-temperatures-cause-violent-crime.html
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